Megaphone or muzzle?

The Spiral of Silence and candidate support on social media during presidential elections

Authors

Keywords:

political campaigns, spiral of silence, social capital, opinion leadership, presidential election

Abstract

Recent polling results suggest voters might be hesitant to express their voting intentions in presidential elections, despite the vibrant social media activity of candidate supporters. Using a national, representative survey, this study sought to determine if the spiral of silence influenced social media sharing, or if other factors encouraged the sharing of political endorsements. Based on the study findings, the best predictors of social media sharing intentions were opinion leadership and bridging social capital, with social capital exerting the greatest influence.

References

Bakshy, E., Messing, S., & Adamic, L. A. (2015). Exposure to ideologically diverse news and opinion on Facebook. Science, 348(6239), 1130-1132.

Bourdieu, P., & Wacquant, L. (1992). An invitation to reflexive sociology. University of Chicago Press.

Bredava, A. (2020, November 2). Biden's and Trump's election campaigns: a social media analysis. Awario. https://awario.com/blog/elections-2020-social-media/

Burt, R. S. (1999). The social capital of opinion leaders. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 566, 37.

Chan, M. (2014). Exploring the contingent effects of political efficacy and partisan strength on the relationship between online news use and democratic engagement. International Journal of Communication, 8, 1195-1215.

Chen, H. T. (2018). Spiral of silence on social media and the moderating role of disagreement and publicness in the network: Analyzing expressive and withdrawal behaviors. New Media & Society, 20(10), 3917-3936.

Chiu, C. M., Hsu, M. H., & Wang, E. T. G. (2006). Understanding knowledge sharing in virtual communities: An integration of social capital and social cognitive theories. Decision Support Systems, 42(3), 1872–1888. doi:10.1016/j.dss.2006.04.001

Childers, T. L. (1986). Assessment of the Psychometric Properties of an Opinion Leadership Scale. Journal of Marketing Research, 23(2), 184–188.

Chu, S. C., & Kim, Y. (2011). Determinants of consumer engagement in electronic Word-Of-Mouth (eWOM) in social networking sites. International Journal of Advertising, 30(1). doi:10.2501/IJA-30-1-047-075

Dubois, E., Minaeian, S., Paquet-Labelle, A., & Beaudry, S. (2020). Who to Trust on Social Media: How Opinion Leaders and Seekers Avoid Disinformation and Echo Chambers. Social Media + Society, 6(2), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305120913993

Dwoskin, E., & Timberg, C. (2020, October 30). The unseen machine pushing Trump’s social media megaphone into overdrive. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/30/trump-twitter-domestic-disinformation/

Ekins, E. (2020, July 22). Poll: 62% of Americans say they have political views they're afraid to share. Cato Institute. https://www.cato.org/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share#introduction

Ellison, N. B., Steinfield, C., & Lampe, C. (2007). The benefits of facebook “friends:” Social capital and college students’ use of online social network sites. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 12(4), 1143–1168. doi:10.1111/j.1083-6101.2007.00367.x

Ellison, N. B., Vitak, J., Gray, R., & Lampe, C. (2014). Cultivating Social Resources on Social Network Sites: Facebook Relationship Maintenance Behaviors and Their Role in Social Capital Processes. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 19(4), 855–870. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcc4.12078

Gearhart, S., & Zhang, W. (2014). Gay bullying and online opinion expression: Testing spiral of silence in the social media environment. Social science computer review, 32(1), 18-36.

Gearhart, S., & Zhang, W. (2015). “Was it something I said?”“No, it was something you posted!” A study of the spiral of silence theory in social media contexts. Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking, 18(4), 208-213.

Gearhart, S., & Zhang, W. (2018). Same Spiral, Different Day? Testing the Spiral of Silence Across Issue Types. Communication Research, 45(1), 34–54. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650215616456

Gerber, A. S., Huber, G. A., Doherty, D., & Dowling, C. M. (2012). Personality and the strength and direction of partisan identification. Political Behavior, 34(4), 653-688.

Granovetter, M. S. (1973). The Strength of Weak Ties. American Journal of Sociology, 78(6), 1360–1380.

Hayes, A. F. (2013). Introduction to mediation, moderation, and conditional process analysis: A

regression-based approach. New York, NY: Guilford Press.

Huang, J., Su, S., Zhou, L., & Liu, X. (2013). Attitude Toward the Viral Ad: Expanding Traditional Advertising Models to Interactive Advertising. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 27(1), 36–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intmar.2012.06.001

Hwang, Y. (2015). Does opinion leadership increase the followers on Twitter. International Journal of Social Science and Humanity, 5(3), 258–264.

Johnston, K., Tanner, M., Lalla, N., & Kawalski, D. (2011). Social capital: The benefit of Facebook friends. Behaviour & Information Technology, 32(1), 1–13. doi:10.1080/0144929X.2010.550063

Karlsen, R. (2015). Followers are opinion leaders: The role of people in the flow of political communication on and beyond social networking sites. European Journal of Communication, 30(3), 301–318.

Katz, E., & Lazarsfeld, P. (1955). Personal Influence: The part played by people in the flow of mass communications. Transaction Publishers.

Kim, S. H. (2012). Testing fear of isolation as a causal mechanism: Spiral of silence and genetically modified (GM) foods in South Korea. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 24(3), 306-324.

Kushin, M. J., Yamamoto, M., & Dalisay, F. (2019). Societal Majority, Facebook, and the Spiral of Silence in the 2016 US Presidential Election. Social Media + Society, 5(2), 205630511985513. https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305119855139

Kwahk, K.-Y., & Ge, X. (2012). The effects of social media on e-commerce: A perspective of social impact theory. 2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, 1814–1823. doi:10.1109/HICSS.2012.564

Kwon, K. H., Moon, S. I., & Stefanone, M. A. (2015). Unspeaking on Facebook? Testing network effects on self-censorship of political expressions in social network sites. Quality & Quantity, 49(4), 1417-1435.

Lee, C., & Sohn, D. (2016). Mapping the social capital research in Communication: A bibliometric analysis. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 93(4), 728–749. https://doi.org/10.1177/1077699015610074

Lin, N. (1999). Building a network theory of social capital. Connections, 22(1), 28–51. doi:10.1108/14691930410550381

Linge, M. K., & Lewak, D. (2020, November 13). Why election polls were so wrong again in 2020. New York Post. https://nypost.com/article/the-real-reason-election-polls-were-so-wrong-again-in-2020/

Matthes, J., Rios Morrison, K., & Schemer, C. (2010). A Spiral of Silence for Some: Attitude Certainty and the Expression of Political Minority Opinions. Communication Research, 37(6), 774–800. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650210362685

Mitchell, A. , Gottfried, J., Kiley, J., & Matsa, K.A. (2014). Political polarization & media habits. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.journalism.org/2014/10/21/political-polarization-media-habits/

Nisbet, M. C., & Kotcher, J. E. (2009). A Two-Step Flow of Influence?: Opinion-Leader Campaigns on Climate Change. Science Communication, 30(3), 328–354. https://doi.org/10.1177/1075547008328797

Noelle-Neumann, E. (1974). The spiral of silence a theory of public opinion. Journal of Communication, 24(2), 43–51.

Olson, C. S. C., & LaPoe, V. (2017). “Feminazis,”“libtards,”“snowflakes,” and “racists”: Trolling and the Spiral of Silence effect in women, LGBTQIA communities, and disability populations before and after the 2016 election. The Journal of Public Interest Communications, 1(2), 116-116.

Papakyriakopoulos, O., Serrano, J. C. M., & Hegelich, S. (2020). Political communication on social media: A tale of hyperactive users and bias in recommender systems. Online Social Networks and Media, 15, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.osnem.2019.100058

Park, C. S. (2013). Does Twitter motivate involvement in politics? Tweeting, opinion leadership, and political engagement. Computers in Human Behavior, 29(4), 1641–1648.

Pew Research Center. (2018, November 5). More now say it’s ‘stressful’ to discuss politics with people they disagree with. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2018/11/05/more-now-say-its-stressful-to-discuss-politics-with-people-they-disagree-with/

Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community. Simon & Schuster.

Schäfer, M. S., & Taddicken, M. (2015). Mediatized Opinion Leaders: New Patterns of Opinion Leadership in New Media Environments? International Journal of Communication, 9, 960–981.

Sheehan, K. (2015). A change in the climate: Online social capital and the spiral of silence. First Monday, 20(5). https://doi.org/10.5210/fm.v20i5.5414

Stanton, Z. (2020, October 29). ‘People are going to be shocked’: Return of the ‘shy’ Trump voter? Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

Su, C. C., & Chan, N. K. (2017). Predicting social capital on Facebook: The implications of use intensity, perceived content desirability, and Facebook-enabled communication practices. Computers in Human Behavior, 72, 259–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2017.02.058

Trepte, S., & Reinecke, L. (2012). The reciprocal effects of social network site use and the disposition for self-disclosure: A longitudinal study. Computers in Human Behavior, 29(3), 1102–1112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2012.10.002

Turcotte, J., York, C., Irving, J., Scholl, R. M., & Pingree, R. J. (2015). News Recommendations from Social Media Opinion Leaders: Effects on Media Trust and Information Seeking. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 20(5), 520–535. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcc4.12127

Valenzuela, S., Park, N., & Kee, K. F. (2009). Is there social capital in a social network site?: Facebook use and college student’s life satisfaction, trust, and participation. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 14(4), 875–901. doi:10.1111/j.1083-6101.2009.01474.x

Weeks, B. E., Ardevol-Abreu, A., & de Zuniga, H. G. (2017). Online Influence? Social Media Use, Opinion Leadership, and Political Persuasion. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 29(2), 214–239.

Weeks, B. E., Lane, D. S., Kim, D. H., Lee, S. S., & Kwak, N. (2017). Incidental exposure, selective exposure, and political information sharing: Integrating online exposure patterns and expression on social media. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 22(6), 363-379.

Williams, D. (2006). On and Off the ’Net: Scales for Social Capital in an Online Era. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 11(2), 593–628. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1083-6101.2006.00029.x

Wright, C. R., & Cantor, M. (1967). The opinion seeker and avoider: Steps beyond the Opinion Leader concept. The Pacific Sociological Review, 10(1), 33–43.

Downloads

Published

2023-12-31